ov. George W. Bush won a decisive victory in the South Carolina this weekend, besting John McCain and reestablishing himself as the leader in the race for the GOP presidential nomination. Most opinions polls had predicted a much tighter contest, but in the days leading up to the balloting, Bush unleashed a relentless media campaign and nonstop round of personal appearances.

   The Texas governor also benefited from a last-minute blitz orchestrated by Pat Robertson, Jerry Falwell and other key religious right leaders. The results became apparent early Saturday evening as the exit polls tally, and later the tabulated results showed a surprising victory. Bush ran up 301,050 votes to McCain's 237,888 -- 53% to 42% percent. Far behind was Alan Keyes, still a favorite with some religious. Bush added only 34 delegates to his convention total, but the South Carolina victory may prove to be more important in terms of its symbolic value, clearly positioning Bush as the leader as Republicans prepare for their August convention in Philadelphia.

   The final numbers reveal that a key element in the Bush victory was the mobilizing of the state's Christian conservatives who dominate the Republican Party there.

   ¶    Voters identified with religious right groups and churches turned out in huge numbers for Bush, giving 68% of their votes and leaving McCain with 24%. Those who did not consider themselves supporters of the religious right went for McCain, 53%, but many -- 46% -- still remained loyal to the party pick and voted for Bush.

   The New York Times observed, "The religious right provided Mr. Bush's margin of victory in South Carolina, where it is vastly more powerful than in the North."

   ¶    Bush went into South Carolina following his surprise loss to McCain in the New Hampshire primary. He immediately began carpet-bombing the state with volunteers, direct mailings and negative television and radio ads, and the governor boldly announced that the state was "Bush country." Autopsies of the primary show that Bush's aides were right in their assessment that the same party organization that had carried his father to victory in 1988, built by former Gov Carrol A. Campbell, Jr. would do the same for the young Bush. Bush was able to appeal to party loyalists, and paint McCain as a disruptive political outsider who couldn't beat Al Gore next November.

   ¶    In the McCain camp, strategists recognized the important role played by the religious right in this crucial primary. John Weaver, McCain's political director summed up the results for reporters and remarked, "Ralph Reed, Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell are to be congratulated."

   "We lost the religious right by 57 points, proudly," Weaver added. "They overwhelmingly turned out for Bush."

   Interestingly, McCain did not benefit from a last-minute endorsement by Gary Bauer, head of the Family Research Council, who recently dropped out of the GOP nomination race. Bauer's move has caused a minor fault line among religious right groups, and his endorsement brought a stern rebuke from James Dobson of Focus on the Family.

   In a Feb. 16th statement, Bauer declared that while he disagreed with both Bush and McCain on some issues, McCain "is a man of unshakable honor and integrity and will bring respect back to the White House."

   The following day, Dobson swung into action, releasing a statement reflecting his focus on character issues. He charged that the Arizona senator "is being touted by the media as a man of principle, yet he was involved with other women while married to his first wife and was implicated in the so-called Keating scandal with four other senators. He (McCain) was reprimanded by the Congress for the 'appearance of impropriety.'"

   Dobson also made allegations about McCain's temper and alleged use of "profanity."

   "These red flags about Senator McCain's character are reminiscent of the man who now occupies the White House," Dobson added.

   In summarizing Saturday's turnout in South Carolina, New York Times reporter Richard L. Berke observed, "If religious conservatives were removed from the mix, Mr. McCain would have won, barely."

   ¶    The Bush campaign turned sharply to the right in South Carolina, as Bush hammered away at themes like flying the confederate flag over the state capitol, his opposition to abortion and his emphasis on "moral values."

   Indeed, when asked about the importance of a candidate's position on morality, 47% of those voting for Bush say they emphasized a values-based political agenda as opposed to 30% for McCain. McCain did best among those who wanted to strengthen social security (71%) and who emphasized a candidate's "personal qualities" (66%).

   ¶    How coordinated was the effort by key religious right groups to provide Bush with his crucial margin of victory?

   AANEWS noted last week in issue #714 ("PUSH FOR BUSH" AS ROBERTSON, RELIGIOUS RIGHT TAKE ON McCAIN IN SOUTH CAROLINA PRIMARY") that Pat Robertson has been supporting Gov. Bush as far back as the summer of 1999, when prospective GOP nomination seekers were lining up at the Christian Coalition's "Road To Victory" Conference in Washington. Robertson has consistently stepped in to help Bush, started with the Texas governor's gaffe over the abortion issue when he declared that Americans were "not ready" to outlaw abortion.

   Appearing on one recent Sunday morning talk show, Robertson announced, "If he (McCain) becomes the party's nominee, the Christian Coalition would sit this vote out. We would not support him, and you would see of lot of Christian support for the Republican party go out the door."

   Even mainstream media which for over a year have been prematurely writing a political obituary for Robertson and the Christian Coalition admit that in the South Carolina primary, the avuncular televangelist and his network of churches delivered the goods to the Bush campaign. Along with a huge financial war chest -- just over $8 million spent in South Carolina alone -- Bush was able to count on the religious right, and his close friend Rev. Robertson, in turning out the vote.

   Bush refused to meet with the gay Log Cabin Republicans group, and instead launched his South Carolina campaign on the stage at Bob Jones University, a symbolic bastion of religious conservatism. He also played hard on the abortion question and even dragged in the volatile issue of casino gambling. Three hundred thousand pamphlets mailed to arrive a day before the primary voting hammered away at McCain's record, while extolling Bush's stand on abortion and gambling.

   The National Right to Life group -- which recently received a $250,000 "grant" from a slush fund of the Republican National Committee -- bombarded the state with ads criticizing McCain's vote in favor of fetal-tissue research, and his friendship with former senator Warren Rudman, who is pro choice. Religious conservatives demanded that McCain fire Rudman, and Robertson coordinated with the NRL attack by taking his own shots at the former lawmaker on his "700 Club" program and the Christian Broadcasting Network web site.

   Robertson pointed to segments of Rudman's political autobiography, "Combat."

   "A dozen conservative Christian leaders in South Carolina accuse McCain's cochairman of hate speech," opined a CBN news story. The item targeted passages from the Rudman book, where he referred to "antiabortion zealots, would-be censors, homophobes, bigots and latter-day Elmer Gantrys to discredit any party that is unwise enough to embrace such a group."

   Robertson also turned up the heat on the GOP leadership to denounce Rudman. South Carolina Christian Coalition head Roberta Combs released a statement by Robertson which read, "I am not only calling on John McCain to repudiate this anti-Christian bigotry, I am asking evangelical Christians across America to contact the McCain campaign and demand an apology for this direct assault on people of faith..."

   There are several lessons to be learned from the South Carolina primary. Gov. Bush went into the state in a dead-heat with McCain, but pulled away in the final days thanks to a combination of factors including deep pockets, a well-crafted if negative campaign media blitz, and the support of key groups -- including the religious right.

   ¶    Reports of the demise of Christian Coalition which paint it as a disintegrating group failed to take into account Robertson's political expertise, his strong ties to Republican leadership (including Bush), and the ability of the CC to still mobilize a considerable number of Christian conservatives. Whether this same strength will carry over to states like Michigan remains to be seen; but Robertson delivered a key state to the Bush campaign at an important time.

   There is evidence that Bush is well aware of the pivotal role played by Robertson and his allies. The current issue of Newsweek ("The Inside Story of Bush's Comeback") notes that the governor has already agreed to a demand that he keep a "strict pro-life plank in the GOP platform."

   ¶    Bush's campaign is further energized by the blatant use of religious right issues and rhetoric. After his Bob Jones University appearance, for instance, Bush went on Christian radio and announced that gay people would not be appointed to positions in his administration.

   This sort of demonizing and stereotyping may play well with Bush's national campaign. Time Magazine describes this as Bush's "Death Star" strategy -- driving an opponent's negative ratings through the roof (in South Carolina, McCain's soared from 5% to nearly 30% in a matter of days), negative media blitzes, and heavy turnouts from core groups, including the Christian right.

   This is also the return of a strategy designed by the late GOP operative Lee Atwater, a South Carolina native who helped turned that state into a Republican bastion. Atwater used tactics described as "black arts" and "search-and-destroy" which mixed heavy media blitzes with generous amounts of name-calling and negative campaigning. The strategy also calls for heavy use of "surrogates," which the Bush campaign employed throughout the state. Time Magazines identifies the "surrogates" in South Carolina as including Ralph Reed (former head of Christian Coalition), Pat Robertson, Sen. Strom Thurmond, Lieutenant Gov. Bob Peller, and groups like the National Right to Life Committee.

   ¶    If Christian conservatives continue to turn out in large numbers on behalf of Bush, payback will come later this summer as Republicans sit down to finalize their platform. Expect heavy Christian Coalition pressure on the party platform committee to include Robertson's pet social agenda items on issues like abortion rights, school prayer, vouchers, government aid to religion-based social outreaches, gays in the military, same-sex marriage, internet censorship and much more.

   A Bush victory in November means that Robertson and other religious conservatives stand a good chance of having a revolving door to the center of political power in Washington, the White House. This constituency is in an even better position if the GOP can hang on to control of both the U.S. Senate, and the House of Representatives. This is not guaranteed, though. Many religious right groups felt excluded even during the Reagan years, and further distanced under the administration of former President George Bush. Increasingly, Republican leadership -- especially in the Congress -- has been under considerable pressure to deliver more on the religious right's social agenda. One response has been the "Values Action Team," a group of about two-dozen House Republicans who have promoted a slew of legislative items on the Christian Coalition's social hit list.

   ¶    Expect Bush to continue using religious rhetoric in his political campaign. Democrats will likely respond on a similar level; party strategists already speak of "taking God back" for their party. Look forward to plenty of campaigning in churches, lining up religious leaders as campaign "surrogates," and emphasis on "faith-based partnerships' between government and religion as a way of solving social problems.

   ¶    Candidates are likely to be grilled on how they would select justices for the U.S. Supreme Court. The next president could end up nominating three or more for court positions. Abortion, school prayer and other religious litmus test issues are likely to be raised.

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