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FLORIDA RECOUNT IS ON: MIXED ELECTION PICTURE ON FIRST AMENDMENT ISSUES

Web Posted: November 8, 2000

There are no simple answers here. Vice President Al Gore has about a 250,000 vote lead in the popular vote. Texas Gov. George W. Bush owns a razor-thin margin in Florida, a key state with 25 electoral votes which could move him into the White House. There are slight, but potentially significant shifts in the coloration of the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives; and one of the leading congressional architects of "charitable choice," Sen. John Ashcroft, is contesting his loss in Missouri to a former governor who died in a plane crash on October 16.

   Many Americans who stayed up late last night, filling the coffee cup and listening to the television pundits, thought they would wake this morning with final word on who would be the next President of the United States. They were wrong. A recount is now on in Florida, which could drag on into this evening. Another possible bump in the election highway; what will the official electors do on December 19 when they meet?

   For Atheists and state-church separationists, election 2000 was not kind. Both major party candidates advocated a slew of giveaway, entitlement programs for organized religion, and had already made known their support for "special rights" statutes like the Religious Liberty Protection Act. Some Atheists agreed with California separation activist Eddie Tabash, and astronomer Alan Hale who both saw the overarching issue as the naming of future Supreme Court justices. For them and others, Gore was preferable to Bush, whose strict constructionist approach to judicial appointments could threaten First Amendment separation.

   Here, then, is a breakdown of races, ballot initiatives and other pertinent issues, mindful of the fact that the national contest remains undecided at this time...

   ¶    Nationwide, over 80% of voters who described themselves as Christian evangelicals chose Bush, and networks gave them credit for generating grass roots support for the Republican candidate. Commentator Jeff Greenfield told CNN that the GOP's religious right carried through on its promises to deliver a number of key states, and noted that this segment of the party will remain a powerful player and constituency.

monthly special    Religious belief was one of several factors affecting how many people chose to cast their vote. Bush won the bulk of votes from Protestants, while Gore had a solid lead among Jews, likely because of his choice of Sen. Joseph Lieberman as a running mate. "Those who did not identify with any religion" leaned toward the Democrat according to an Associated Press exit poll. "The more likely a voter was to attend religious services, the more likely he or she was to vote for Bush."

   The Washington Post noted that Green Party candidate Ralph Nader's support "was by far the strongest among those who never go to church, at 7%." The Post added that Nader received strong backing from young voters, "voters who do not identify with any religion," and those who felt that Gore's stand on issues were too conservatives.

   Exit polling suggests that Bush succeeded in making some headway with three target groups at the center of his campaign strategy: suburbanites, Hispanics and Roman Catholics. The Texas governor still lost the bulk of the Hispanic vote, for instance, but he reduced the Democratic margin of victory from a 7-2 ration in the 1996 election to about 2-1. He also grabbed about 43% of the suburban vote, which according to the Washington Post also cut into Mr. Gore's base. Preliminary surveying also shows that Bush may also have garnered about 52% of the Roman Catholic vote.

   Most voters (about 60%) rejected GOP and religious right strategies which attempted to emphasize personal qualities over a candidate's stand on economic issues. Gore, for instance, did well with those who put a high priority on deficit reduction, Social Security and Medicare. Among those stressing personal values, though, Mr. Bush won about 61% of their votes compared to 36% for Gore. Those stressing tax reduction also supported Mr. Bush by a massive 4-1 ratio.

   Bush's stand on vouchers, though, was less productive and a "potential disaster" according to the Washington Post. "He (Bush) may have been lucky that the issue did not become central to the campaign." Voters reported that they preferred programs to fix public schools over voucher plans by a 78-16 spread.

   ¶    Voters in Michigan and California rejected voucher schemes which would have used government funds to provide vouchers to parents who wished to send their children to private and religious schools.

   The Michigan referendum, known as Proposal 1, was the most hotly contested ballot initiative and galvanized a coalition made up of religious conservatives, leaders of the Roman Catholic Church and some urban education activists. It would have undone a 1970 state constitutional amendment where voters barred the state from giving any kind of direct or indirect financial aid (subsidies, exemptions, loans, bonds, tax credits) to private schools of any kind.

   Supporters of Proposal 1, though, disingenuously argued that the voucher money would not go to private or sectarian schools, but to parents. Under the program, they would have received a minimum of $6,000 per youngster, with the amount increasing to a maximum of $6,700 per student for the 2002-03 school year.

   About 180,000 students now attending traditional public schools in seven "voucher districts" would have been eligible for the program. The public schools would have lost all per-student funding for each youngster transferring to private and religious institutions. The State Senate Fiscal Agency estimated that the voucher scheme would have cost between $22.9 million and $42.7 million per year depending on the number of students participating.

   Voters nixed the Michigan voucher program, though, with nearly 60% rejecting Proposal 1. "What's going to happen if they siphon off funds to Catholic and religious schools?" one voter rhetorically asked in a Detroit Free Press story. "We'll end up footing the bill when the public schools don't have enough money."

   Despite a hard-sell campaign from the Roman Catholic Church, telephone polls and exit surveys found that Catholic voters turned down Proposal 1 by a whopping 65% to 35% margin. Financial support for the Michigan voucher scheme came from Dick DeVos, president of Alticor Inc. -- formerly, the Amway Corporation -- and his wife, Betsy, the former head of the Michigan Republican Party.


   Another voucher proposal in California, Proposition 38, was defeated by an even wider margin, about 70% to 30%. It would have provided parents with a $4,000 state voucher per child for tuition at private and religious schools, and covered up to 6.6 million youngsters. The proposition was energized with contribution from Silicon Valley moguls, and would have created the nation's largest voucher program had it passed. Supporters carried their campaign to minority voters, but neither a majority of Hispanics nor blacks supported the measure.

   Gov. Gray Davis told the San Francisco Chronicle that in rejecting Proposition 38, voters were saying "the answer to improving public schools is staying on the path we're on."

   ¶    Religious conservatives and their allies won several key races. Rep. Bob Aderholt (R-Ala.) who is a member of the influential "Values Action Team" set up to promote the religious right agenda on capitol hill retained his seat. Recall that Aderholt is the author of legislation supporting display of the Ten Commandments, and "student led" prayer at high school athletic events. In Florida, the pro-lifer Republican Ric Keller won the open seat of Bill McCollum (R), who unsuccessfully sought the vacated U.S. Senate post held by Connie Mack. Rep. Charles Canady's seat was retained by another religious right stalwart, Adam Putnam. Other races were won by Republicans who enjoyed religious right support, including Tim Johnson (Illinois), Mike Pence (Indiana) Rep. Anne Meagher Northup (Kentucky), Ernie Fletcher (Kentucky) and Todd Akin in Missouri. One interesting loss was the seat vacated by Republican Tom Coburn, who is now a member of the Board of the Family Research Council. That race went to pro-choice Democrat Brad Carson.

   ¶    Missouri Gov. Mel Carnahan was already in tight electoral contest with GOP incumbent Sen. John Ashcroft when he, his eldest son and his chief aide were killed in a plane crash on October 16. Ashcroft is best known as the legislative architect of the "charitable choice" provision grafted in the 1996 Welfare Reform Act; it put sectarian religious groups on equal footing with other organizations seeking government contracts to administer social service programs.

   Carnahan's window, Jean, agreed to accept an offer to fill the Senate seat although the name of her deceased husband still remained on the ballot. In St. Louis County, a Democrat stronghold, polls stayed open beyond the prescribed 7 PM closing time, as Carnahan took 54% compared to 45% for Ashcroft. The Post-Dispatch newspaper noted that with 86% of the precincts in statewide, Carnahan enjoyed a 1% lead.

   The voter breakdown showed Carnahan attracting strongest support from younger voters and women. A majority of men backed Ashcroft, as did religious conservatives who mounted a furious get-out-the-vote effort on behalf of the incumbent. The Family Research Council and other anti-choice groups backed Ashcroft, whose "pro-life" agenda distinguished him from Carnahan.

   ¶    Some ballot initiatives and referendums give insight into the mood of the country, and the impact religious groups may have regarding issues such as abortion and gay rights.

         -- In Vermont, Democratic Gov. Howard Dean won a fifth term in office, and survived an ugly contest which made an issue of his signing an unpopular "civil unions" bill legalizing homosexual unions. He led 51% to 38% for Republican challenger Ruth Dwyer, and independent candidate Anthony Pollina. The GOP will be taking control of the Vermont House, which threatens the legislation, but Democrats have managed to gain parity in the state Senate.

         -- Voters in Nebraska gave a hefty 70% margin of victory to a state constitution amendment banning homosexual marriages. The measure declares all same-sex domestic partnership arrangements to be invalid. Known as Initiative 416, it declares: "Only a marriage between a man and a woman shall be valid or recognized in Nebraska. The uniting of two persons of the same sex in a civil union domestic partnership or other similar same-sex relationship shall not be valid or recognized in Nebraska."

   Guyla Mills, head of the Defense of Marriage Amendment Committee, told the religious website crosswalk.com, "This has been four-and-a-half years in the making, and we're thrilled. I hope this sends a message to the rest of the nation that we do not need to step back and incrementally see marriage, the most fundamental of our institutions, meets its demise."

   According to the Omaha World-Herald, Roman Catholics support the measure by a 3 to 1 margin, reflecting the strong backing of the state's ecclesiastical leaders. Elden Curtiss, the Archbishop of Omaha, sent out literature featuring a photograph of Pope John Paul II to all parishioners urging support for the amendment. The flier included a quote from the pontiff describing marriage as a "covenant whereby a man and a woman establish between themselves a partnership of their whole life." Mormons, fundamentalists and evangelicals also supported 416, as did the Nebraska affiliate of James Dobson's Focus on the Family organization.

         -- Voters in Nevada approved Question 2, another state referendum which defines marriage as only between a man and a woman. The measure won about 70% of the votes, and was the most publicized ballot initiative. A group known as the Coalition for the Protection of Marriage gathered more than 120,000 signatures to place the measure on the ballot, and spent more than $700,000 on television and radio ads.

         -- Colorado voters turned back Amendment 25, a proposition which would have required a 24-hour waiting period for women seeking abortion. Supporters of the measure used some of the most egregious Orwellian language in defending the proposed statute, saying that it was a way to "protect women from being pressured and coerced into having abortions."

   "We're thrilled," declared Fifi Mendez, a consultant to the anti-25 campaign. He applauded voters for "unpackaging a very deceptively packaged amendment," adding that "voters were clear about the fact that they did not want government intruding in the doctor-patient relationship."

   In addition to the mandatory 24-hour waiting period, Amendment 25 also would have required the state department of health to produce and provide all physicians with written and videotaped materials on the risks of abortion, and possible alternatives. "Doctors would have been required to present that information to parents and to file yearly reports on how many women received it, and how many subsequently received an abortion," added the Post. "Those reports would have been published by the state," and doctors who failed to comply would have been charged with a felony.

         -- Supporters of First Amendment separation in Alabama now have Judge Roy Moore as the new chief justice of their state Supreme Court. Moore has attracted national headlines for the past several years over his brazen display of a hand-carved Ten Commandments plaque in his Etowah County courtroom, and a policy of opening judicial proceedings with a Baptist invocation. Moore survived several years of legal challenges, and when his term as county judge expired, he decided to seek his state's highest judicial office.

   Moore ran a campaign which was conspicuous for its emphasis on religious belief, said Dr. Larry Powell, a political science professor at the University of Alabama.

   "He was able to identify with the single issue," said Powell in an interview with the Birmingham News. "That simplifies things. He is sort of like the poster child for the court's overly restrictive view of religion for those who hold those views."

   With 64% of the precinct's counted, Moore had a 53% to 47% lead over his Democratic opponent, Sharon Yates. Yates criticized her controversial opponent for never appearing with her for a public debate.

   "We never had an opportunity to be on the same stage together or to discuss the role of the judiciary in the state of Alabama," Yates told the Gadsden Times. Yates, a judge on the state Court of Ciivl Appeals, said that while she uses the Ten Commandments as a guide in her personal life, her judicial rulings rely instead on the Constitution. She accused Moore of turning the race into a one-issue contest.

   "I think the chief justice's role as the head of the third branch of government is much more than a single issue."

   Moore hammered away at religious themes, though, and never surrendered his lead in the public opinion polls. Religiosity was contagious, and the News observed that "other judicial candidates, both Democrats and Republicans, used religion in their campaigns. Every spot seemed to feature some mention of God, the Ten Commandments or the Bible..."

   William Stewart, a political science professor at U. of A. added, "Religion was much more pronounced than ever before."

   As the votes rolled in, Moore gushed to supporters at a celebration in Gadsden, "Remember the one responsible for it all, and that's God."

   "This campaign is about morality," Moore added. "It's about the loss of morality in our state and nation."

BEHIND THE SCENES: CREDIT TO THE RELIGIOUS RIGHT

   Whatever the outcome of the Florida recount, some of the credit for Bush's performance, particularly the phalanx of pro-Bush states in the south and midwest, goes to religious right organizations. In the early days of the GOP primary races, religious conservatives threw their weight behind other candidates like Steve Forbes, Alan Keyes and even Lamar Alexander. The Bush organizations worked hard, though, to court evangelical leaders, and eventually nailed down support from Jerry Falwell, Pat Robertson and others.

   Falwell, for instance, launched an impressive but low-profile $18 million effort known as "People of Faith 2000" to turn out the fundamentalist and evangelical vote.

   Robertson transfused the hemorrhaging bank account of the Christian Coalition, as the organization survived a traumatic downsizing and staff reorganization that saw the loss of key political operatives. A leaner-and-meaner Coalition kept a lower profile in contrast to the heady days of the 1996 campaign. The group managed to pump out between 45 million and 70 million of its voter guides, and register a new gaggle of church voters.

   Other groups contributed to the effort as well.

   The Traditional Values Coalition spent much of its year 2000 budget on political activism according to a report from People for the American Way. The California-based TVC targeted nearly three dozen House districts and 12 to 15 Senate races as well, and created a special "Get-Out-The-Christian-Vote" program. TVC also promised to distribute a whopping 50 million of its own voter guides and related materials.

   Concerned Women for America was another group working quietly but studiously behind the scenes, targeting blocks of religious conservative moms and sounding the alarm about "the decline in moral values." CWA launched a voter-mobilization campaign where the group's 300,000 members could "multiply" their efforts and register up to 10 other like-minded "pro-family" voters.

   Other organizations flooded precincts with a slew of materials. D. James Kennedy, who operates the Florida-based Coral Ridge Ministries, used his Center for Reclaiming America to distribute "Neighborhood Election Strategies" fliers which offered advice on everything from absentee voting to working phone banks on election eve.

   All of this may have paid off. Should Mr. Bush survive the recount with his narrow edge in Florida, pick up the state's 25 electoral votes, and win the electoral college race, he is beholden to his party's religious right for precinct victories in many key states. Christian conservatives turned out in record percentages to support him. Bush may find that his "compassionate conservatism" will have to be scrapped as he makes the transition to Washington, D.C., and Jerry Falwell, Pat Robertson and others present their list of agenda items.




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